The Health Foundation has published a report on funding pressures in adult social care. They use the Homecare Association’s Minimum Price for Homecare 2025-26 to inform their modelling. Their analysis shows the system desperately needs reform, with four key priorities for action:
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Meeting the growing demand and costs for social care.
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Improving access to care.
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Improving pay and conditions for staff.
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Providing fairer and more generous state protection against care costs.
Their analysis projects potential costs in three scenarios:
Scenario 1: Meet future demand and additional cost pressures. This scenario is based on meeting expected growth in demand from population ageing and necessary funding in line with increased costs of Employer National Insurance and the National Living Wage. This level of funding would maintain the current level of access to care.
- Estimated funding required in 2028/29: £3.4 billion.
- Estimated funding required in 2034/35: £9.1 billion, requiring a 3.1% annual real-terms increase in overall funding.
Scenario 2: Meet future demand, additional cost pressures, and improve access to care. Building on Scenario 1, this includes additional funding to increase the amount of care people receive and/or expand care to more people by providing nearly 90,000 more care packages, which is equivalent to a 10% increase.
- Estimated funding required in 2028/29: £6.4 billion.
- Estimated funding required in 2034/35: £12.7 billion, requiring a 3.9% annual real-terms increase.
Scenario 3: Meet future demand, additional cost pressures, improve access and pay. Building on Scenario 2, this includes additional funding to increase pay for staff, help care providers meet costs and improve market sustainability. This scenario assumes careworkers receive pay equivalent to the NHS Agenda for Change Band 3.
- Estimated funding required in 2028/29: £8.7 billion.
- Estimated funding required in 2034/35: £15.4 billion, requiring a 4.5% annual real-terms increase.
The report recommends significant reform, especially in social care funding, to give people fairer and more generous state protection against care costs.
